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March 26, 2006

Iran Continues to Bob and Weave

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Iran continues to bob and weave around the nuclear issue, saying it supports the Russian and Chinese approach to resolving the conflict.(CNA)

Iran "supports and is happy with the position (of Russia and China) in favour of pursuing negotiations in a bid to find a solution acceptable to all parties and examination of the (nuclear) question under the auspices of the International Atomic Energy Agency" (IAEA), Irna quoted Mottaki as saying.

The UN Security Council has attempted in vain to agree on a deadline for Tehran to comply with IAEA demands to abandon all activities linked to the enrichment of uranium.

Ducking, bobbing, sliding from side to side, evading punches from the west, seems like a prefectly fine defense to me. If I were the Iranians I would be doing the same thing. I would also work on getting anyone who was economically, or potentially economically dependent on me to play on my team, like for example Russia and China.

Russia, backed by China, insists on the Security Council playing a supporting role to the IAEA, the UN's nuclear watchdog, and rejects any deadline which appears like an ultimatum linked to possible sanctions.

Lavrov said Friday that Moscow could not accept any decision on Iran reached by Western powers without prior consultation with Russia.

Russia's economic links with Iran grew substantially over the past couple of years.(AxisGlobal)

volume of trade in the last year grew by 43 per cent compared to 2003, and exceeded $2 billion. As examples of a fruitful bilateral cooperation, the Russian diplomat mentioned the nuclear reactor in Busher the telecommunications satellite "Zohre (Venus,) and joint projects within the framework of the International Transport Corridor

China is in the same position. (ISN)

In mid-February 2006, amid controversy over Iran's nuclear research program, China and Iran announced an energy deal potentially worth US$100 billion. According to the agreement, state-owned China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, or Sinopec, will develop Iran's Yadavaran oil field, and China agreed to buy from Iran ten million tons of liquefied natural gas per year for 25 years beginning in 2009. Sinopec would assume a 51 percent stake in the field, expected to produce 300,000 barrels per day, with 29 percent going to India's Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (O.N.G.C.) and the remaining 20 percent to either Iranian firms or another foreign company such as Royal Dutch Shell.

This deal is the latest and most significant step in economic relations between the two states. Trade between China and Iran increased from US$1.2 billion in 1998 to US$7.5 billion in 2004, and jumped to US$9.5 billion in 2005. China currently imports about 13 percent of its oil from Iran alone and, as consumption continues to rise, will be increasingly reliant on foreign oil.

Given the economic links it should be no surprise that the Chinese and Russians are reluctant to agree to any sanctions. They each have too much at stake. I am curious how this will play out.

Posted by Chip Spear at March 26, 2006 7:01 PM

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