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February 24, 2006
Al Qaeda Hits A Massive Grand Slam
Extremists on every side must take a certain glee in the recent attack on the Al-Askariya "Golden Mosque" in Samarra. The situation is obviously dangerous and extremely complex. The US and voices of moderation appear to be losers right now, or at least they are far behind on the scoreboard. I listed some bulletpoints of my thoughts at the moment
Al Qaeda gets chaos it desires. It would rather have a Sunni country.
They can establish training ground
They don't want a western oriented democracy
Neither do other monarchist states, like Saudi Arabia.
U. S. loses if there is a civil war
Shiites is losing control of the government
Shiites blame the US for not protecting the mosque
Shiites mad at US because they think they are siding with Sunnis in formation of government.
Shiites think they deserve to control government and have been unwilling to compromise which infuriates Sunnis
Shiites attack Sunnis for attacking mosque
Radical Shiites like al-Sadr gain more power
Sunnis blame US for not protecting them from Shiite reprisals
Sunnis pull out of coalition government
Sunnis already angry that Shiite militias and police forces are targeting, killing and torturing Sunnis
Many more Sunnis support insurgents after Shiite reprisals
Kurds sit and watch, eventually moving to secure oil fields in the north. They want control of the fields in case of a civil war
Iran - Influence grows with Iraqi Shiites in a civil war
Iran blames the US for letting Iraq descend into civil war
US might be more inclined to leave Iraq sooner in event of civil war, which again increases Iran's power in the region.
This is quite disastrous for the US.
Posted by Chip Spear at February 24, 2006 12:00 PM