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January 26, 2006
Hamas Hits a Grand Slam
What a real surprise. I don't think anyone really expected Hamas to actually win a majority in yesterday's Palestinian elections. And now that they have, the question that is everywhere in the media is, "Now what?" War? Peace? Stalemate? Higher walls? More terrorism? More targeted Israeli strikes? Uneasy truce? Ah, if I could only see into the future, I would be a very rich man. From a strategic standpoint I doubt that Hamas wants to commit suicide. I doubt that they will be too blatant in advocating Israel's destruction now that they are running the country. They know that Israel has the guns and army to inflict an amazing amount to physical destruction. Israel can also tighten the borders to make it very hard for Hamas to strike back. It will not be impossible, but hard. Over time, if no one is too stupid, the reality of governing a country will change their policy. Many Palestinians rely on Israel for their livelihood. They need Israel. If they can't work and can't trade, Hamas will have serious internal problems. I feel that eventually they will begin a slowly reach out to the Israelis. How it manifests itself is anyone's guess. Is this assured? No, but it seems a reasonable course of action. There are many other variables here, including Al Qaeda and Iran getting involved in the mix, but I think that the potential for serious damage by Israel will preclude them from being too influential.
These issues are further complicated by the uncertainty in Israel with Sharon's stroke. So much is up in the air. We don't know who is going to lead Israel and what policies they will implement. Will they continue to withdraw settlements or reverse course? Will they attack Hamas if terrorism continues? If so, to what degree? We don't know how Hamas will combine its radical past with governing a country. So many questions and so few answers.
Posted by Chip Spear at January 26, 2006 11:39 AM