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September 23, 2005
The Mysteries of Iraq, WMD and Al Qaeda
I have been reading a terrific book by George Friedman called America's Secret War: Inside the Hidden Worldwide Struggle Between America and its Enemies. The book goes into detail about the war in Afghanistan, the ongoing struggle with Al Qaeda, Iraq and the roles played by Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Iran. It has been an eye opener. Many of the issues are things I was vaguely aware of, but not to the degree outlined in this book. Among some of Friedman's points are that Iran wanted the U.S. to invade Iraq and was feeding Chalabi with intelligence, which he then passed on to the U.S. The problem for the U.S. was that Iran was only giving Chalabi part of the story. They were not saying anything about the potential for a huge insurgent opposition. The U.S. and Saudi's were playing a game of chicken. The U.S. didn't really want to invade Iraq, they realized that it was going to be a tough situation at best, but they needed to find a way to get the House of Saud to clamp down on Al Qaeda and especially its supporters within Saudi Arabia. The U.S. realized that the House of Saud was sitting on a powder keg and was, and still is, reluctant to act against extremist elements. The Saudi's didn't want American troops in Iraq sitting on their border. They felt that the U.S. would not invade without using Saudi territory, which is one reason they asked the U.S. to pull all troops out of the country prior to the invasion.
Friedman also contends that the U.S. did not want a coalition. They needed to appear strong and effective without the help of others. The Arabs did not particularly respect American strength. They felt, with some reason, that within a short time and a few well publicized deaths that Americans would turn against the war and leave. This is exactly what the Iranians thought too. They believed the Americans would come in, get rid of Saddam, then depart, leaving them with huge influence in the south. In addition, many Arabs were not going to stake their lives on the U.S. if it was going to pull out too soon and leave the insurgents and Al Qaeda stronger than before.
The WMD reason for war was only one of a number that motivated the Bush administration to attack Iraq. The others were complicated, difficult to sell to the American public and perhaps couldn't be stated publically anyway. The issues here are very complex and interesting, which makes the book a fascinating read. I only touched on a few of the points, so read the book. I think you will learn a great deal. I know I have.
Posted by Chip Spear at September 23, 2005 9:18 AM
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