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June 25, 2005
Let's Talk About Iraq
Recent polls indicate more and more Americans are turning against the war. Each day new headlines greet me in the morning with more suicide bombers or roadside bombs killing 10, 20, 30, or 40 more people. The volume of dissent grows as increasing numbers call for the removal of American troops from Iraq. "Bring them home," I read. "Okay," I say, "bring them home, then what?"
Now I don't want to suggest that I was in favor of the war. I was sceptical of Bush's claims about WMDs. I thought that he wanted to go in for other reasons. Those don't matter at the moment. I do think it is important to project a little about what the implications are before everyone jumps on the withdrawal bandwagon. Up to this point I have heard nothing regarding consequences from the people suggesting a pullout.
Given my great abilities to foresee the future (I have won every Powerball drawing I have entered, not) here are a few possible options after we leave:
The insurgents lay down their arms and join the new government. (Ha, Ha).
The insurgents continue fighting, insisting that the government is a tool of the West and illegitimate. A large scale civil war develops, the government eventually wins and Iraq establishes a democratic, constitutional government.
The insurgents continue fighting, insisting that the government is a tool of the West....The insurgency wins, establishes a strong fundamentalist state with extensive training camps for terrorists. We don't go back in because of lack of American support. The terrorists expand the war and repeatedly attack inside the U.S. The terrorists threaten every country in the area. Fundamentalism stengthens throughout the Middle East. (Oh boy)
The insurgents continue fighting....Iraq breaks apart into a number of pieces, most likely three; Sunni, Shiite, and Kurd. The Sunni's set up numerous terrorist training camps (see above). The free Kurd state creates huge problems for Turkey where the Turkish Kurds start a war to either gain independence or join with the Iraqi Kurds. The Shiites establish a state, maybe modern Muslim if we are lucky, or fundamentalist with strong ties to Iran if we are not. (This seems pleasant).
Considering the players, give me some more options that are realistic.
Posted by Chip Spear at June 25, 2005 12:21 PM
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